We have created a FV3 Triathlon proprietary piece of software. Its purpose is to include all race parameters and output the likelihood of potential race scenarios. The race parameters include:
- Race distances
- Physical strengths/weaknesses of each participant
- Character strength/weaknesses of each participant
- Competitiveness index for each participant
- Likely support available for each participant
The “Likelihood” is defined as follows:
50% represents the demarcation line: values above 50% translate to “Yes” with 100% being “Absolutely Yes”. Values below 50% translate into “No” with 0% being “Absolutely Not”.
The first list includes general questions on the overall race:
Scenario Likelihood All participants will finish the race 93.4% All High Priest participants will finish the race 99.9% All Relief Society participants will finish the race 99.9% All Elders Quorum participants will finish the race 72.8%
The second list includes questions on more specific scenarios:
Scenario Likelihood Beau McCraney will win the swimming portion of the race (**note this question was asked before adding Christy Monson as a participant) 94% Curt Huffmire will complete the race 47% Assuming Jillyn Huffmire spend ½ the time she currently puts towards the Triathlon Wives Support group, Curt Huffire will complete the race 95% Paul Hafen’s clothing and accessories will be the most color-coordinated 97% Charlie South will cause a delay to the start of the race by refusing to change out of a speedo. 88% Bishop Rick Johnson will "lose count" of his laps in the pool and finish early. 62%
As the software is configured to the Triathlon it will support all race scenarios. If you would like to see the likelihood for a scenario of your own feel free to leave it as a Comment and we’ll run it through.
John & Jeff
Monday, April 23, 2007
By the Numbers
Our two resident actuarials, John Damitz & Jeff Farr thought it would be fun to run some numbers on how likely different triathlon scenarios will be. Below are their findings…
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Once again my education is questioned. Just to be sure I want to show everyone I do know how to count from 1 to 24: 1,2,3,4,5,8(Brother Greathouse is ahead until this lap),10(President Miller reverted to counting the way he does on the golf course, which is creatively. According to President Borgquist),11,12,13,15(I see Brother John's running a lap instead of swimming), 16,17,18, 23(Beau is almost done), 24. I win...oh yeah. This is not about winning(according to Brother Blake)so I go back and swim laps: 6,7,9,14,19,20,21,22. This time I find I've lost. But I can live with myself.
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